Will Waikiki Be Under Water in Our Lifetime?
Is Waikiki going to be underwater? That's a fear I get asked a lot from people looking to buy a condo here in Waikiki. What I'm going to do is start out with the worst case scenario because today we're on a king tide in the middle of summer. This is probably going to be the most extreme that you'll see throughout the year. Because today, we have a huge south swell. It's like 15 feet on the outside and then we have a king tide and we had a full moon last night. So I want to show you from perspective this is kind of as bad as it'll get. Once again, this is a question I get asked often from buyers.
Sea Level Disclosure
As realtors we now have to disclose where the future high watermark is going to be within 20 to 30 years. I have my opinions of what's going to happen ultimately, but I think some of it's fear tactics. Sometimes, water can get up high on days like today and that's why I want to show you an extreme like today.
Ala Wai on the Mauka Side of Waikiki
King Tide on the Ala Wai Canal
Here we are on the Ala Wai Canal. This is early August and we're in the midst of king tides and we had a full moon last night. This is kind of be the peak of how extreme you can see it outside of a major storm or flood. Once again, Ala Wai Canal on the Mauka side of Waikiki. It has to get up quite a bit higher here to get into Waikiki. But I just want to give you a perspective.
King Tide at Fort DeRussy
Now, here we are on the opposite side of Waikiki directly on the ocean. Like I said, we have a huge south swell today, and we're at the peak high tide. This is what we call king tides here in Waikiki. And as you can see on the distance it's just cranking out there. So I want to show you what it's like today on kind of the worst case scenario. And how high the water can get in Waikiki. We just had a wave come up here. In my opinion this is going to be almost as bad as it gets.
Waikiki Shore on King Tide
So here we are at the Waikiki Shore which is basically right next to Fort DeRussy. This is the only oceanfront condo building in Waikiki. So, when we're talking about Waikiki being underwater as far as condos go this would be at the forefront of it. And there's still a beach here considering how big the waves are today. Like I said on the outside it's like seven eight feet Hawaiian style but check this out. Super high tide, king tides today.
Fear From Sea Level Disclosure
Sea Level Rise Map off Diamond Head and Waikiki
As I mentioned earlier, us as Realtors have to disclose this now - Where the future high watermark is going to be 20, 30 years out. And this all started with the University of Hawaii professor. And I think he just wants to put his name on the map. We had a deal that we lost several years back. I was selling a penthouse condo down on the Gold Coast at Diamond Head. Once that buyer saw that disclosure statement, they freaked out and canceled the deal.
2023 Castle Surf Penthouse Sale
It turns out the buyer's agent (who is very reputable and has been selling down on the Gold Coast over the past 30 years) said in his opinion he's never seen the "rise". Like it has been unchanged in all the years that he's been selling real estate there. So to make a long story short, that buyer canceled. After that, we had one more full price offer with two backup offers (all at and above asking price). Then, after that, that original buyer regretted canceling that deal.
Furthermore, the seller we were representing at the time he went to NOAA's website. You's think NOAA would know what they're talking about. And NOAA actually had lower high watermark predictions in the University of Hawaii professor.
Media Selling Fear
So this is a common trend we've seen over the years about people predicting doom and gloom. I went to Venice with my wife over 20 years ago and they said by today Venice is going to be underwater. Venice is still there. My wife was there last summer. It was in the media recently that Dan Rather said that Florida is going to be underwater 40 years ago. And here we are today. Florida is still there. Al Gore has been warning doom and gloom for decades.
There's constant climate change alarmists. And yeah, absolutely you know there'll be days like today where the water is high. In my opinion, I can't predict the future, but I highly doubt all of Waikiki is going to be underwater the next 20-30 years. We may have an extreme event like a tsunami or hurricane. I did a video on natural disasters if you want to check that out. But in my opinion those are nominees and not everyday living in Waikiki. I hope you found this useful and if you want to learn more about real estate here in Hawaii, I can be reached at 808-371-3509. Mahalo.